The recent exit poll results from The Late Late Show on Friday night have revealed a tight race between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Sinn Féin in the Irish general election. Sinn Féin is leading with 21.1 percent of the popular vote, followed closely by Fine Gael at 21 percent, and Fianna Fáil at 19.5 percent. The margin of error is around 1.4 percent, making it too close to call ahead of Saturday’s vote count starting at 9am.
The Green Party polled at 4 percent, which is half of their 2020 vote share. Labour is at five percent, while the Social Democrats are at 5.8 percent. Aontú also performed well with 3.6 percent, People Before Profit is at 3.1 percent, and Independent Ireland is at 2.2 percent. A total of 12.7 percent of respondents voted for independent candidates.
If these exit poll results hold true during the counting on Saturday, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil might be on their way back into government, possibly needing support from independents or smaller parties. Despite winning the popular vote for the second consecutive general election, Sinn Féin seems to lack a clear path to Government Buildings.
According to reports from the Irish Mirror, Fine Gael’s popularity suffered in opinion polls due to a series of campaign blunders and controversies. The candidacy of Senator John McGahon, who was found civilly liable for assault and ordered to pay €39,000 in damages by the High Court, caused negative attention. Simon Harris faced backlash for an incident with a care worker in Kanturk, Co Cork, which was later apologized for. Additionally, it was revealed that a member of his staff contacted RTÉ regarding the incident’s coverage.
Before the election was called on November 8, Fine Gael held a six-point lead over its competitors. However, this lead decreased during the campaign, with the party standing at 20 percent in a Tuesday opinion poll. Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil were at 20 percent and 21 percent, respectively.
The exit poll conducted by Ipsos BandA for RTÉ, the Irish Times, and Trinity College Dublin surveyed approximately 5,000 voters across the country after they cast their votes. While exit polls are generally accurate, there can be discrepancies, especially in a close race like the current campaign.
In 2020, an exit poll had the three largest parties tied at 22 percent each, but when the votes were counted, Fianna Fáil received 22.2 percent, Sinn Féin received 24.5 percent, and Fine Gael received 20.9 percent. Stay updated with the latest news on the Belfast Live homepage and by signing up for the politics newsletter.
